For the three years, I have made my Super Bowl picks on this site. For three years, I have gotten it wrong . Couple this fact with a stunning 6 game losing streak that I am currently under and I am not even going to bet my own prediction for the game.
In case you want to go the opposite way, take the Colts and give the 5 points.
Instead of the actual game, I am going to instead give you my top prop bets for the Big Game. If you are not familiar with prop bets, let’s just say these are the bets that make the Super Bowl game the Super Bowl of winning weekends for the Las Vegas sports books. The casinos and town are so psyched about this weekend that a local TV newsman literally called it a holiday weekend for the Las Vegas valley.
The term prop comes from the ancient Greek work propious which means "sucker." You would think this would give me pause before placing such a bet; but in the immortal words of the great Admiral Farragut, “Damn the vigorish, full speed ahead!”
When I decide which props bets to make, I always avoid the ones I have to lay money and instead go for the ones with a plus price. I feel bad enough that I am succumbing to the casinos hypnotic trance, but at least I will trick myself into believing I am getting a good deal by not having to put up more money than I could win.
The truth is some of the best prop bets are the ones you have to lay money. A good example of this is the prop on whether the game will go into overtime. There have been 43 Super Bowls and none have gone to OT. You have to lay $1050 to win $100, but it really is a good bet.
Bit I shall not allow let logic get in my way. So here are my top 7 prop bets to make for the Super Bowl.
Total 1st half points by Saints
Over 13 +110
First score of the game will be a field goal
Yes +180
Shortest TD scored by either team
Over 1.5 yards +135
Which will occur 1st in game for the Colts
Punt +120
Total Punts in Game
Under 8 +110
Total Sacks by the Colts
Over 2 +190
Devery Henderson will score at least one TD
Yes +220
First Players to score a TD
Dallas Clark 9/1
Enjoy the game!
Last week 0-2
Season 137-124-8
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Friday, January 22, 2010
Championship Weekend aka Hell Week
I am still licking my considerable wounds after last weekend 0-4 performance with my picks.
What make me sick is that I predicted the Chargers game...4 months ago! In my pre-season blog, I wrote they would blow a playoff game that should win.
So for this week's picks, I decide to listen to that younger, wiser version of myself.
Jets +8 at Colts
I checked in with myself from 4 months ago, and I throw up a little in my mouth when I told myself that the Jets were in the AFC Championship Game. When I informed myself that the Colts purposing tanked a game against the Jets just a few weeks earlier which allowed the Jets into the playoff, I completely, full out barfed.
I noted to myself that karma is a bitch and the Colts deserve what they have wrought. I agree and while it pains me to know end, I am finally picking the Jets.
(Secretly, I hope this will be the ultimate jinx pick)
Vikings at Saints -3.5
I read my preseason predictions and saw I predicted Brett Favre will make 15 unbelievably terrible “What the hell was he thinking” plays this season. He is way under the number of those crazy interceptions. I believe the natural law of Favre Physics will catch up on Sunday and besides, the Saints are such the better story.
Last week 0-4
Season 137-122-8
What make me sick is that I predicted the Chargers game...4 months ago! In my pre-season blog, I wrote they would blow a playoff game that should win.
So for this week's picks, I decide to listen to that younger, wiser version of myself.
Jets +8 at Colts
I checked in with myself from 4 months ago, and I throw up a little in my mouth when I told myself that the Jets were in the AFC Championship Game. When I informed myself that the Colts purposing tanked a game against the Jets just a few weeks earlier which allowed the Jets into the playoff, I completely, full out barfed.
I noted to myself that karma is a bitch and the Colts deserve what they have wrought. I agree and while it pains me to know end, I am finally picking the Jets.
(Secretly, I hope this will be the ultimate jinx pick)
Vikings at Saints -3.5
I read my preseason predictions and saw I predicted Brett Favre will make 15 unbelievably terrible “What the hell was he thinking” plays this season. He is way under the number of those crazy interceptions. I believe the natural law of Favre Physics will catch up on Sunday and besides, the Saints are such the better story.
Last week 0-4
Season 137-122-8
Friday, January 15, 2010
Division Weekend
After going a vanilla 2-2 picking games last week, I decided to do some research before picking this week’s games.
Did you know….
The Cardinals are 5-0 against the spread over the course of the last two playoffs?
The Colts average margin of victory this year in their last 8 wins was less than 6 points?
Did you know the Wall Street Journal analysis an average NFL game (2 hr 57 minutes) and discovered there was only 11 minutes total of live action?
Did you know no number one seed has won the Super Bowl in 6 years?
I was busy getting more did you know items until I came across this clip:
I can’t stop watching it! It’s hypnotic.
To hell with research. Here are my vanilla picks for this week. Guaranteed to go 2-2, I just don’t know which two will win.
Arizona +7 at Saints
Ravens +6.5 at Colts
Cowboys +3 at Vikings
Jets at Chargers -7
Last week 2-2
Season 137-118-8
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Wild Card Weekend
Jets v. Bengals
The Jets are that guy who just because his parents bought him a smoking hot Porsche, he thinks he’s earned being the shit. I’d like to point out to all the Jet’s Kool Aid drinkers (like the guy who wear a Wayne Chrebet jersey on a first date) that in the last three games they could only muster a touchdown against Atlanta and won two basically forfeited games.
As for the Bengals, I am going with the theory that they can’t look any worse than last Sunday night. This is a theory that often gets me in trouble at the roulette table when I say “There is no way red can come again after 13 straights.” By the way, YES IT CAN.
My Pick: Bengals -2.5
Eagles v. Cowboys
Last week, the Eagles went from having a first round bye to be the last seed in the conference. On the good side, this means more room service for Andy Reid. Okay, I get it; Andy Reid has problems with his weight. He and his team have also had a very tough time with the Cowboys this year.
All the smart people are suggesting that the Eagles really laid down a bit last week and remind everyone about the Cowboys playoff futility. Well, I have never been accused of being smart.
My pick: Cowboys -3.5
Ravens at Patriots
This just in: In addition to broken ribs and fingers, Tom Brady has the following other injuries:
ingrown toenail, back acne, dandruff, eye twitching, ear wax and a general case of the blahs. How can one man endure so much without anyone being allowed to touch him?
The Welker injuries really hurts the Pats, just no this weekend. Belchick will talk himself into going for it on several critical 4th downs and he’ll make everyone because the Ravens will jump offside.
My pick: Patriots -3.5
Packers at Cardinals
This is by far the toughest game to predict, which obviously means it will be a blowout. The Packers have looked great in the second part of the season. Their defense is strong and Aaron Rodgers has quietly done a fantastic job of replacing Brett Turncoat. Of course, last week the annihilated the Cardinals in a game the Cardinals obviously laid down on purpose. Plus, it looks like the Cardinals have injury issues. With all signs pointing to the Packers, the wise guy gamblers have jumped all over them. The moved this line from Cardinals favored by 3 to Packers favored by one.
But last year, everyone and their mother-in-law were counting out the Cardinals and all they did was come 2 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl. It’s too tough a call. I would only bet this game with the government’s money. But if I did have their money…
My pick Cardinals +1
Last Week 11-5
Season 135-116-5
The Jets are that guy who just because his parents bought him a smoking hot Porsche, he thinks he’s earned being the shit. I’d like to point out to all the Jet’s Kool Aid drinkers (like the guy who wear a Wayne Chrebet jersey on a first date) that in the last three games they could only muster a touchdown against Atlanta and won two basically forfeited games.
As for the Bengals, I am going with the theory that they can’t look any worse than last Sunday night. This is a theory that often gets me in trouble at the roulette table when I say “There is no way red can come again after 13 straights.” By the way, YES IT CAN.
My Pick: Bengals -2.5
Eagles v. Cowboys
Last week, the Eagles went from having a first round bye to be the last seed in the conference. On the good side, this means more room service for Andy Reid. Okay, I get it; Andy Reid has problems with his weight. He and his team have also had a very tough time with the Cowboys this year.
All the smart people are suggesting that the Eagles really laid down a bit last week and remind everyone about the Cowboys playoff futility. Well, I have never been accused of being smart.
My pick: Cowboys -3.5
Ravens at Patriots
This just in: In addition to broken ribs and fingers, Tom Brady has the following other injuries:
ingrown toenail, back acne, dandruff, eye twitching, ear wax and a general case of the blahs. How can one man endure so much without anyone being allowed to touch him?
The Welker injuries really hurts the Pats, just no this weekend. Belchick will talk himself into going for it on several critical 4th downs and he’ll make everyone because the Ravens will jump offside.
My pick: Patriots -3.5
Packers at Cardinals
This is by far the toughest game to predict, which obviously means it will be a blowout. The Packers have looked great in the second part of the season. Their defense is strong and Aaron Rodgers has quietly done a fantastic job of replacing Brett Turncoat. Of course, last week the annihilated the Cardinals in a game the Cardinals obviously laid down on purpose. Plus, it looks like the Cardinals have injury issues. With all signs pointing to the Packers, the wise guy gamblers have jumped all over them. The moved this line from Cardinals favored by 3 to Packers favored by one.
But last year, everyone and their mother-in-law were counting out the Cardinals and all they did was come 2 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl. It’s too tough a call. I would only bet this game with the government’s money. But if I did have their money…
My pick Cardinals +1
Last Week 11-5
Season 135-116-5
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